degen.gauges

Tue, Jun 23, 2026
latest
Dip-buy window
SHUT
Legs basing
2/6 basing
VIX settling
19.5
Credit calm
peg failing
De-risk triggers
STRC < 90 · $87.3 — de-risk STRC < 80 · cut hard VIX > 22 · at 19.5 CTA breach · +0.7% away VVIX > 100 · 99.5
Synopsis

Auto-generated gauge snapshot — synopsis is authored separately (privacy-scanned) and attached via the publish-synopsis step.

What changed · vs prior
  • VIX 17 → 19
  • SPX breadth 56% → 60%
  • F&G 35 → 28
  • STRC 88.8 → 87.3
  • Mag7 2 → 1
  • legs basing 4 → 2

Macro regime

risk-on
0/6
Credit (HY OAS)2.65%252d pctile 2%, 1m -0.09pp, tightening
Rate vol (MOVE)69252d pctile 28%
Equity vol (VIX TS)VIX 19.5 / 3M 21.1 → contango
Fin. conditions (NFCI)-0.51looser than average
Real rate (10y TIPS)2.28%1m +0.15pp
Breadth (RSP/SPY)50d -1.6%narrowing

Mechanical label can mislead while internals rot — read the signals, not the headline.

Fear & Greed

contrarian
28
fear
MomentumStrengthBreadthPut/CallVolatilitySafe-havenJunk-bond
Clock A · ROI / demanddoes revenue show up first?

AI ROI coverage

14%of capex covered
exogenous 9% · ~35% circular
Lab ARR$54B+157%
vs capex$400B/yr+60%
Exogenous9%
Circular (NVDA→OpenAI→Azure)~35%

ARR vs capex is Clock A's numerator. Exogenous-vs-circular is the honesty check. asof 2026-06-22.

AI-infra demand

$0.30cheapest frontier $/Mtok
median $10.00
Cheapest frontier$0.30/Mtok
Median frontier$10.00/Mtok
Frontier-class models81
Total models338

Price (the Jevons denominator) only. Falling = intelligence commoditizing; volume must outrun it.

Consumer (the demand base)

+3.2%spend-over-income gap
savings 2.6%
Real PCE YoY+2.1%
Real DPI YoY-1.1%
Gap (spend - income)+3.2%
Savings rate2.6%
Revolving credit YoY+3.8%
CC delinquency2.92%-0.14pp/yr
Debt service / DPI11.2%+0.06pp/yr
Initial claims226k+21k/qtr

Spend>income + low savings + rising debt-service = the consumer-funded leg is stretched.

Distribution (K-shape)

+2.2%productivity-pay wedge → capital
labor share -2.9% YoY
Productivity YoY+2.8%
Real pay YoY+0.6%
Wedge → capital+2.2%
Labor share (2017=100)95.0-2.9% YoY
Corp profits YoY+17.4%

Gains to capital income-cap the demand base. The K-shape slows Clock A (ROI).

Clock B · creditthe leading edge / the fuse

Crypto / AI-infra credit

$87.31STRC (par 100)
-12.7% vs par · peg failing
STRC discount-12.7%
Strategy prefs4/4 below par-8.1% 5d
MSTR vs BTC (21d)-31.0%
BTC$62,689
MSTR$103.84

The leading credit edge. STRC<90 falling = de-risk; <80 = cut hard. Dress rehearsal for AI-infra credit.

Credit quality ladder

8.7ppCCC-IG dispersion
leaking (bottom edge)
IG OAS0.74%+0.00pp/mo
BB OAS1.56%
HY OAS2.65%
CCC OAS9.47%+0.08pp/mo
Private-credit / BDC-7.9% off-hi-1.9% 5d
Lev loans (BKLN)-0.6% off-hi
Regional banks (KRE)+0.0% off-hi

CCC + private credit cracking while IG/banks calm = early/confined. IG widening or banks breaking = systemic.

Funding plumbing

-4bpSOFR - IORB
buffer drained
SOFR3.61%
IORB3.65%
SOFR - IORB-4bp
RRP buffer$6B+3B/mo
Bank reserves$3.03T-96B/mo

A plumbing leak is a different failure mode than spreads; SOFR spiking >IORB = the 2019 repo channel.

Private credit / AI-infra debt

-17.5%worst basket off-hi
cracking
Private credit (BDCs)-8.8% off-hi-4.1% 5d
PC worst nameOWL -15%
AI-infra debt-17.5% off-hi-2.3% 5d
Infra worst nameORCL -33%

Equity proxy for the shadow-bank / AI-infra-debt edge (CDS/CLO/NAV are paywalled). Confirms credit_stress.

Neocloud watch

-9.1%basket off-hi
2/9 cracking >15% · stressed
CRWV-23.4% off-hi-0.9% 5d
IREN-19.3% off-hi-10.1% 5d
BRUN-11.0% off-hi-6.9% 5d
HUT-9.4% off-hi+0.3% 5d
APLD-8.8% off-hi-2.6% 5d
CIFR-5.3% off-hi+6.2% 5d
NBIS-4.0% off-hi+5.8% 5d
WULF-0.7% off-hi+2.2% 5d
CORZ+0.0% off-hi+3.3% 5d

Levered GPU-cloud operators (CRWV/IREN/…) — the most faith-dependent corner; cracks first. Bifurcation = name-specific, not a complex meltdown yet.

Magnitude · the payload, not the fusehow violent the unwind, if it comes

Momentum / crowding

2/6basing
Momentum factor
MTUM/SPY
+1.4%
Mag7 mega-cap
MAGS/SPY
-2.7%
Semis
SMH/SPY
-1.3%
High-beta/low-vol
SPHB/SPLV
-2.5%
Breadth (eq/cap)
RSP/SPY
+1.1%
Growth/value
VUG/VTV
-3.7%
off-hi · 5d basingVIX 19.5 · VVIX 99.5

off-hi = unwind so far · run63 = fuel left · 5d ≥ 0 = basing. Dip-buy needs legs basing.

CTA systematic flows

+0.7%to short
SPX spot 7,365
spot
short+0.7%
medium+5%
long+11.4%

Breach = systematic supply ON. Levels asof 2026-06-09.

SPX breadth

n=502
% above 50dma60%
% above 200dma62%

The load-bearing breadth measure (n≈500).

Retail froth (payload size)

+30.5%margin debt YoY
$622B
Margin debt$622B+30.5% YoY
High-beta SPHB/SPLV-5.3% off-hi-2.5% 5d
2x-ETF casino off-hi-44.8%
2x-ETF casino 5d-21.4%

The payload size, not the fuse — froth amplifies the move; credit + ROI trigger the break.

Mag7 concentration

1/7above 50dma
color only — not breadth
AAPL294.30-0.9%
MSFT373.94+1.8%
GOOGL346.13-1.0%
AMZN234.11+0.6%
NVDA200.04-4.1%
META562.20-0.3%
TSLA381.61-5.8%

n=7 is not breadth — the breadth measure is the SPX panel.

Backdrop · environment & themes

Buffett indicator

218%market cap / GDP
valuation backdrop
Total mkt cap / GDP218%

Valuation backdrop — magnitude, not a trigger.

Cross-asset tape

SKEW 143tail-hedge demand
pctile 35%
DXY101.40
Gold$4,083
BTC$62,691
Copper$6.13

Macro cross-asset backdrop.

Memory super-cycle

+40-50%3Q26 QoQ forecast
vs consensus +15-20%
3Q26 forecast+40-50%
Consensus+15-20%
Cycle-top marker2028 ASP fall — China NAND catch-up + 15-20% supply growth; CSP LTAs at 50% of capacity (could go 70%), squeezing consumer
Latest printawaiting — MU print

Contract-price read vs the super-bull call. The crux gauge for the memory leg.

Memory tape (live proxy)

EWY 192.2Samsung / SK Hynix proxy
-12.2% 1d
EWY192.20
1d-12.2%
5d-9.1%
Off 63d high-12.3%

Live memory-duopoly proxy — leads the contract print + Asia risk.